Asia: The International and Regional Community Must Act on Myanmar’s Four-Year Crisis under Junta Rule

1 February 2025 – Four years since the military’s failed coup in February 2021, the people of Myanmar’s resistance against the junta’s brutal rule has not only persisted but intensified. The Transitional Justice Asia Network (TJAN), a regional hub of transitional justice experts which includes the Network for Human Rights Documentation – Burma (ND-Burma) as one of the founding members, unequivocally condemns the junta’s continued and escalating violence. We reaffirm our unwavering solidarity with the people’s resistance as they bravely fight for freedom and democracy. 

As documented in joint report by ND-Burma and the National Unity Government (NUG) of the government-in-waiting, the past four years have been a display of horrors: arbitrary arrests, indiscriminate airstrikes, systematic burning of homes and villages, and the use of heavy weaponry against civilian populations. “The situation in Myanmar is rapidly deteriorating and beyond critical,” states Han Gyi, Coordinator of ND-Burma. “The people urgently need support to protect their rights and ensure their safety. It is essential to recognise and commend the resilience of individuals from all walks of life who have united in their collective struggle to dismantle the dictatorship.”

Various diplomatic approaches have failed to stop the atrocities as the military junta continues to demonstrate a complete disregard for international norms and agreements. The ASEAN 5-Point Consensus, agreed upon in April 2021, has proven ineffective due to the junta’s blatant disregard, leaving the Myanmar crisis without a people-led and people-centered solution. The 2022 executions of pro-democracy activists, the ongoing forced conscriptions, and the relentless persecution of the Rohingya – including their forced recruitment into the junta’s army – all underscore their contempt for human rights and the rule of law. A recent report by Asia Justice and Rights and partners CSOs in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand details the appalling conditions faced by the Rohingya refugees in the region, highlighting their vulnerability to exploitation, discrimination, and the constant threat or  violence.

This year marking a critical juncture, where accountability for the junta’s atrocity crimes is of utmost important. The ICC Prosecutor’s application for an arrest warrant for junta leader Min Aung Hlaing for crimes against humanity against the Rohingya—committed in Myanmar and, in part, in Bangladesh—is a welcome step, but it must be followed by concrete action. The international community must pursue all avenues for justice, including strengthening support for the ICC investigation, exploring universal jurisdiction initiatives in national court, and imposing targeted sanctions against those responsible for atrocities. 

With Malaysia assuming the ASEAN Chair in 2025, there is a timely opportunity for regional leadership in mitigating the crisis. We urge Malaysia to take decisive action immediately by cutting diplomatic ties with the junta, implementing robust targeted sanctions, and actively engaging with the National Unity Government (NUG) as the legitimate representation of the Myanmar people. Malaysia must leverage its chairmanship to ensure full ASEAN cooperation with the ICC and to explore all available international and regional mechanisms to hold the junta accountable. Hence, ASEAN must take decisive action to elevate its dialogue and forge a stronger, more strategic partnership with civil society across the region.

“The people of Myanmar are demonstrating incredible courage and resilience in the face of unimaginable violations,” emphasises Galuh Wandita, Executive Director of AJAR. “As human rights defenders across Asia, we must amplify their voices and redouble our efforts to advocating for genuine accountability and dismantle the systemic violence endured by its ethnic minorities. The international community must move beyond statements of concern and take concrete action to protect the people of Myanmar and support their aspirations for a just and democratic future.”

Transitional Justice Asia Network (TJAN)
Asia Justice and Rights — KontraS Aceh (Indonesia) — Network for Human Rights Documentation-Burma (Myanmar) — Suriya Women’s Development Centre (Sri Lanka) — Alternative Law Groups (Philippines) — Cross-Cultural Foundation (Thailand) — May 18 Memorial Foundation (South Korea) — Advocacy Forum-Nepal (Nepal) — Asosiasaun Chega! Ba Ita (Timor-Leste)

Ajar

Four years after coup, Myanmar regime prepares for ‘violent, messy’ polls

Pressure is building on Myanmar’s military regime to hold national elections that opposition forces have promised to disrupt.

Myanmar’s 2024 census was almost certainly the most contentious – and deadly – ever conducted.

Enumerators and their heavily armed guards from Myanmar’s military were subject to repeated attacks from opposition groups, as they stumbled through a failed attempt to document the country’s population between October and December last year.

One incident in early October saw seven soldiers providing security for census takers in Mandalay Region killed with an explosive device. Days later, three more soldiers were killed when opposition forces hit their vehicle with a shoulder-launched rocket in Kayin State in the country’s east.

“The census was an utter, abject failure,” Richard Horsey, Myanmar adviser to the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

“But the regime has declared it a marvellous success.”

What is generally a mundane administrative exercise in population counting in most parts of the world, that Myanmar’s census was met with such violent resistance speaks to its significance in the country’s democratic trajectory.

Publishing preliminary results in January, Myanmar’s Ministry of Immigration and Population said the census represents the military government’s “commitment to national reconciliation”.

But it also represents the final step before the military attempts to hold a national election later this year – the first since overthrowing Myanmar’s democratically elected government in a coup four years ago and igniting a civil war.

While the military has painted a potential vote as a return to democratic norms, for Myanmar’s opposition forces, elections are merely an attempt to legitimise the illegitimate regime that seized power in February 2021.

https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.683.1_en.html?gdpr=1#goog_1600327358Play Video

8:34

The “election will be a sham, it will just be for show”, said Zaw Kyaw, a spokesperson for the presidential office at the National Unity Government (NUG), an exiled administration that includes lawmakers ousted by the military.

“The military believes that [holding an election] will be an exit strategy, and they can get some legitimacy in the eyes of some countries by hosting a sham election,” he told Al Jazeera.

“But this election will not lead to stability. It will lead to more instability and more violence.”

‘Absolutely no credible data’

In November 2020, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi led her National League for Democracy (NLD) party to a landslide victory in Myanmar’s general election, winning 82 percent of seats contested in the country’s national and regional parliaments.

Three months later, in the early hours of February 1, the military would overthrow Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, arresting her and other NLD figures. Justifying the coup, the military alleged massive NLD voter fraud in the polls and declared the results void, without providing any evidence of wrongdoing. The coup triggered nationwide pro-democracy protests, morphing into an armed rebellion that continues to engulf large swaths of the country today.

The military-installed government – led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing as its prime minister, and more recently president – has ruled the country since 2021 under a state of emergency that it has renewed several times as it battles ethnic armed groups and newer pro-democracy fighters across the country.

On Friday, the military extended the state of emergency a further six months to July 31.

“There are still more tasks to be done to hold the general election successfully,” the military said, announcing the extension of emergency rule.

“Especially for a free and fair election, stability and peace is still needed,” it said.

Soldiers provide a security while census enumerators collect information in Naypyitaw, Myanmar Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 as the country holds a national census to compile voter lists for a general election and to analyse population and socioeconomic trends. (AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo)
Soldiers provide security while census enumerators collect information in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw on October 1, 2024 [Aung Shine Oo/AP Photo]

Myanmar’s military said its goal for the 2024 census was to provide an “accurate” voter list for the next election.

Such a list would prevent the double-counting of ballots and the participation of ineligible voters, stamping out the widespread voter fraud it claims corrupted the vote in 2020.

“The junta produced absolutely no credible data,” said Khin Ohmar, founder of democracy and human rights group Progressive Voice.

“The junta’s sham census lacked coverage of major swaths of territory and large segments of the population, particularly in areas controlled by democratic resistance groups or revolutionary forces,” she told Al Jazeera.

By its own account, Myanmar’s Ministry of Immigration and Population said it only fully counted populations in 145 out of Myanmar’s 330 townships, which appears to indicate the military now controls less than half the country.

Despite the limited census data, the ministry said it was “profoundly grateful to the people of Myanmar for their enthusiastic participation”, describing the census as a “resounding success”.

Khin Ohmar said the reality is that members of the public who participated in the census were forced “into providing personal data”, often “at gunpoint”.

“It is clear that the junta will continue to use these violent tactics against civilians for its sham election,” she said.

“Any public participation is guaranteed to have been coerced by the military junta,” she added.

Myanmar’s military government did not respond to repeated requests for comment from Al Jazeera.

https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.683.1_en.html?gdpr=1#goog_1600327359Play Video

9:31

A crisis of an ‘unprecedented scale’

Just how high stakes elections are for Myanmar’s severely weakened military cannot be overstated.

While proclamations of its imminent demise have been frequent since the coup, the once unlikely goal of a regime-free Myanmar now looks more achievable than ever as the military has suffered serious setbacks since late 2023.

In October that year the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of ethnic armed groups: the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army – carried out a devastating assault on military-controlled territory in northern Shan State.

Setbacks for the regime continued into 2024 with the military experiencing its worst territorial and personnel losses in its history. Some 91 towns and 167 military battalions fell to resistance forces in a crisis of an “unprecedented scale”, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

Plummeting morale has also seen a “historic surge in defections” from the army.

a close up of a protester holding a placard showing two photos of the face of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing crossed out in red. The placard reads 'AGAINST MILITARY COUP
An anti-coup protester displays defaced images of military ruler Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Mandalay, Myanmar, on March 3, 2021 [AP Photo]

In the context of diminishing control and increasingly robust violent resistance, critics say holding a national election is a fanciful notion.

The regime’s Election Commission Chairman Ko Ko said in December the polls would be held in just under half of the country’s 330 townships nationwide. But even this figure appears unduly optimistic.

Myanmar’s pro-democracy resistance groups and anti-military government ethnic armed organisations increasingly see the military as there for the taking.

While the ousted NLD administration, in government between 2015 and 2021, attempted to strike a balance between civilian and military rule during the country’s short-lived democratic experiment, a return to the pre-coup status quo of military officials in government is no longer an option.

“Our main goal [in 2025] is to eliminate the military dictatorship,” the NUG’s Zaw Kyaw said.

“The military is weaker than it has ever been in Myanmar’s history,” he added.

https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.683.1_en.html?gdpr=1#goog_1600327360Play Video

1:54

Despite the inherent security risks, Horsey of the Crisis Group believes national polls look “increasingly likely” this year.

Time is also ticking for Min Aung Hlaing, Horsey says, as grumbling grows louder from within the military establishment.

“There is pressure from within the elite to hold these polls. They don’t want Min Aung Hlaing ensconced as dictator-for-life. Most don’t relish the prospect of him sticking around forever,” Horsey said.

“He’s consolidated all power in his own hands and they want a slice of the action,” he said.

The military’s most influential patron, China, “has also been pushing very hard”, Horsey added.

“[China] has no interest in electoral democracy, but they do not like [Min Aung Hlaing] and think elections will be a way of diluting his power. Perhaps even bringing more reasonable, predictable and amendable people to the fore,” he said.

One group not pushing for elections in Myanmar is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The 10-member bloc, of which Myanmar is a member, has been bitterly divided on the issue. But ASEAN foreign ministers issued a joint statement in January telling the regime that holding an election amid an escalating civil war should not be a “priority”.

‘Violent, messy’ and ‘bizarre exercise’

Under Myanmar’s military-drafted 2008 constitution, authorities are mandated to hold elections within six months of the state of emergency being lifted – currently set for July 31 – with November the traditional month to do so.

But for the vast majority of Myanmar’s embattled population, what month the military will hold the sham polls is irrelevant.

Holding “elections are an absolute anathema to most people” in Myanmar, the Crisis Group’s Horsey said.

“It is seen as – and is – an attempt [by the military] to wipe away the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi’s landslide victory five years ago,” he said.

“That is something that people just will not accept and they will resist.”

Protesters hold up a portrait of Aung San Suu Kyi and raise three-finger salutes during a demonstration to mark the third anniversary of Myanmar's 2021 military coup, outside of the United Nations office in Bangkok, Thailand, February 1, 2024. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa
Protesters hold up a portrait of Aung San Suu Kyi and raise three-finger salutes during a demonstration to mark the third anniversary of Myanmar’s military coup outside the UN office in Bangkok, Thailand, on February 1, 2024 [File: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters]

Such resistance was already evident in the attacks disrupting the census, and Horsey believes the elections will similarly be a “violent, messy, incomplete process”.

“Who in their right mind would campaign, open party offices, and participate in the election? There’s going to be ambushes, attacks, assassinations – it’s going to be very very dangerous,” he said.

“It’s going to be a bizarre exercise, something that no one else, I think, would recognise as an election.”

While Horsey said there was a “consensus” among most resistance groups that civilians involved in the census should not be attacked, he believes the stakes are higher for the elections and polling stations will “absolutely be seen as a legitimate target”.

The NUG’s Zaw Kyaw said while there will “definitely” be attacks on military targets by the People’s Defence Force (PDF), there will be “no attacks on civilians” participating in the vote.

But even if violence targeting civilians is limited, punitive action of various forms will almost certainly be taken against those deemed to be collaborating with the military regime.

https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.683.1_en.html?gdpr=1#goog_1600327361Play Video

25:20

During the census, nine enumerators, mostly female teachers, were arrested and held for more than a month by PDF fighters in Myanmar’s southern Tanintharyi Region.

Bo Sea, a Tanintharyi PDF spokesman, told Al Jazeera that while the group recognises some civilians are forced into participating in election preparations, those deemed willing collaborators will face “even more severe” punishment than census participants.

“We consider these people as collaborating with the junta’s election process as accomplices,” he said. “There will be civilian teachers and election officials involved. Their participation means they are aligning themselves with the junta,” he added.


2:18

Bo Sea is not alone.

Ko Aung Kyaw Hein, a spokesman for the PDF in Sagaing Region in Myanmar’s northwest, said those who “support the terrorist military council [in carrying out the elections] will be prosecuted under counterterrorism laws”.

Bo Than Mani, chief of the Yinmarbin PDF, also in Sagaing Region, told Al Jazeera his unit will “disrupt” the election, but denied it would conduct violent attacks against those participating.

What is clear, at least to those in Myanmar’s resistance, is that regardless of how the national elections play out, it represents a desperate act by a desperate, sinking military regime.

“Their morale is at the lowest,” Zaw Kyaw said.

“I cannot predict when the collapse will happen. It could happen tomorrow. It could happen in months. It could happen in a year,” he said.

“But definitely the military will fall. No one can stop the military from falling down.”

Additional reporting by Hein Thar.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

The Network for Human Rights Documentation – Burma Releases New Briefing Paper

The Network for Human Rights Documentation – Burma Releases New Briefing Paper,
Defending Democracy: Four Years Since the Failed Coup in Burma

1 February 2025

Four years ago, the military junta attempted to undermine the results of a free and fair national election in Burma, in which the National League for Democracy achieved an overwhelming victory. On 1 February 2021, the Burma Army, led by war criminal Min Aung Hlaing, swiftly imprisoned activists, politicians, and critics of the regime while falsely declaring themselves the legitimate authority of the country, alleging election fraud without evidence. Within hours, Burma’s political discourse would be remembered as a dark and deliberate attack on democratic principles, rights and freedoms.

Today, the Network for Human Rights Documentation-Burma (ND-Burma) publishes “Defending Democracy: Four Years Since the Failed Coup in Burma,” which examines the key movements and significant events that have influenced the People’s Revolution. Despite the tremendous risks faced by human rights defenders in Burma and border regions, their steadfast dedication to achieving a federal Burma has prevented the junta’s coup from succeeding.

The military’s violence has increasingly undermined the rights and freedoms of the people of Burma, among them millions of innocent women and children who continue to suffer. The first year of the failed coup saw deaths in broad daylight across urban and rural areas. By the second year, the junta brutally ordered the executions of four prominent, imprisoned activists: Ko Jimmy (Kyaw Min Yu), Phyo Zeya Thaw, Hla Myo Aung, and Aung Thura Zaw. In 2023, the intensifying armed conflict impacted 80% of the country’s townships (225 out of 330).

Last year, in September 2024, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights declared that at least 5,350 civilians have been killed and more than 3.3 million displaced in Burma since the coup. Local organizations have reported higher numbers in their respective areas.

Women and children are disproportionately impacted by violence in Burma. The escalation of attacks includes the use of drones by the military junta, which are becoming a new tool of terror in the war against innocent people. ND-Burma member organizations have consistently and courageously continued to document human rights violations to ensure evidence is preserved to hold the junta accountable for its widespread and systematic crimes.

As Burma’s citizens enter the fifth year since the blatant attack on their rights and freedoms, the strength of the People’s Revolution remains undiminished and shows no signs of stopping. The international community must demonstrate its commitment to democratic values by ending all ties that risk legitimizing the military junta. They must also heed the calls made by civil society organizations and the National Unity Government to ensure that Burma’s future is one where all people can live freely and safely.

For more information:

Name: Nai Aue Mon

      Signal: +66 86 1679 741

Name: San Htoi

      Signal: +66 64 195 6721

The Network for Human Rights Documentation-Burma (ND-Burma) consists of 13 organisations representing a range of ethnic nationalities, women, and former political prisoners. Since 2004, ND-Burma member organisations have been documenting human rights abuses and fighting for justice for victims. The network has nine full members and four affiliate members.

Defending Democracy: Four Years Since the Failed Coup in Burma

A short report by the Network for Human Rights Documentation-Burma

Screenshot

Despite the many challenges and changes that the people of Burma have unjustly experienced since the attempted coup on 1 February 2021, there remains a joint commitment and effort for a federal and democratic future. Four years ago, the military junta did not hesitate to fire bullets at peaceful, unarmed protesters who swiftly denounced the General’s disregard for the nationwide 2020 election results, in which the National League for Democracy (NLD) party won its second landslide victory since coming to power in 2015.

On the morning of when the new Parliament was set to resume, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, along with his corrupt allies, immediately changed course by hijacking and dismissing the results. Despite no evidence of fraud or interference, the regime claimed that the election was stolen and that it was, therefore, the rightful ruler to govern. They arrested their political opponents, including the leader of the NLD party, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and President U Win Myint.

The junta expected to be recognized as the governing authority, believing the civilian population would promptly comply. This assumption was a significant misjudgment, as the military seriously underestimated the determination, commitment, and dedication of the millions who still oppose the regime’s oppressive actions.

Young people, notably women, were among the first to organize protests and led creative campaigns calling for immediate action by the international community to bring an end to decades of military rule in Burma. The military responded with deadly force. The first case of violent suppression of civic freedoms occurred on February 9, 2021, when police shot and killed a young woman peacefully protesting. This brutality only intensified the protesters’ resolve as they called for an end to injustices, urging the junta to restore power to democratically elected officials and to release all unjustly imprisoned individuals.

Four years later, unfortunately, all calls remain unanswered, as they have been ignored not only by the terrorist regime but also by international and regional stakeholders, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), who refuse to act with the urgency that the crisis warrants. The junta has swiftly targeted individuals attempting to undermine its agenda.

The National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG) was established less than two months after the coup. It is Burma’s only legitimate representation, founded by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH). The NUG arose from the democratic elections in 2020 and collaborative efforts with the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC). On September 7, 2021, the NUG proclaimed a ‘defensive war’ against the junta, marking the shift from peaceful protests to armed resistance in the people’s revolution. The People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), made up of civilians trained for combat, are now allied with various ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) in their fight for freedom against the military junta.

In the time that has elapsed, many things have changed. However, longstanding concerns remain woefully unaddressed. The human rights situation has significantly worsened, as millions are displaced and thousands remain unjustly imprisoned. By the end of 2024 alone, the NUG Ministry of Human Rights recorded an alarming 7,394 cases of widespread and systematic attacks in various forms against civilians. Their documentation included nearly 1800 cases of extrajudicial killings and 1355 cases of property destruction. ND-Burma member the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) also released findings which found nearly 100 civilians, including fourteen under the age of 18, were killed in December 2024. The majority, approximately 45, lost their lives in airstrikes. A subsequent report, “Close the Sky” by Blood Money Campaign, reported over 4000 airstrike incidents between 1 February 2021 and November 2024.

And yet, the international community, including ASEAN, has repeatedly engaged with the military which has risked lending the regime the legitimacy it so desperately craves.

Further, the junta’s crimes have been largely ignored, encouraging it to push forward with plans for a fraudulent election scheduled for later this year. Despite this, the military is increasingly losing control of bases and territory across various states and regions. Their denial of their current reality is contested by the decision to implement forced conscription. Enacted nearly a year ago, the newly passed law highlights the junta’s desperation to restore its strategic leverage. There have been record levels of military defections and historically low morale throughout the various battalions. Furthermore, following its setbacks against EROs there has been a significant increase in aerial assaults by the junta.

Without immediate and coordinated action by international stakeholders, including consultations with civil society organizations, to end the junta’s retaliatory and indiscriminate attacks, the military will only continue to perpetrate human rights violations with the same impunity it has benefited from for more than seven decades.

Myanmar junta blocks military-aged men from work abroad

Ministry of Labor told employment agencies not to allow men aged 18 to 35 to sign up for foreign work contracts.

Myanmar’s junta has banned employment agencies from sending military aged men abroad as it struggles with a growing civil war while promising to extend peace and stability for an election that it hopes will bolster its legitimacy.

Millions of Myanmar people have gone abroad to work, many through arrangements it has with other governments, organized by employment agencies. 

While the overseas workers are an important source of income for the junta that seized power in a coup on Feb. 1, 2021, the military is also keen to fill the ranks of its armed forces as it battles ethnic minority insurgents and allied pro-democracy fighters.

Nearly a year after the junta enforced a conscription law, began recruiting women and arresting young men to serve, it has sought to block prospective soldiers from travelling abroad for work, representatives of employment agencies told Radio Free Asia on Friday.

“Starting today, people between the ages of 18 and 35 will no longer be eligible for the OWIC,” an official at a Yangon-based oversea employment agency told Radio Free Asia, referring to the Overseas Worker Identification Card, issued by the Ministry of Labor, which everyone hoping to work abroad must obtain.

“The restriction does not apply to women yet, only males between the ages of 18 and 35,” the official said, referring to a ministry order to stop issuing the cards.

RFA tried to telephone the junta’s spokesperson, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Htun, to ask about the policy, but he did not answer. Minister of Labor Nyan Win also declined to comment and referred RFA to Zaw Min Htun.

The ruling military extended a state of emergency for another six months on Friday saying more needed to be done to ensure peace and stability for a successful general election.

No date has been set for an election, which anti-junta forces have dismissed as a sham. The constitution mandates that an election must be held within six months after a state of emergency is lifted.

In December, junta authorities ordered job agencies to add a clause in migrant workers’ contracts stating they could be called home for military service. 

One young man hoping to get a job through an agency to work in Thailand – where about 1.8 million Myanmar workers are officially employed and many more work unofficially – was despondent about his chances.

“I already signed a contract with the agency and put a deposit down,” said the 25-year-old who declined to be identified.

Another employment agency employee said migrant workers who come home for a visit could be banned from going back to their jobs abroad.

“Some people might come back without studying the situation here … They won’t be given permission to go abroad again,” said the agency staffer, who also declined to be identified.

Under Myanmar’s Military Service Enactment Law, anyone summoned for military service, as well as anyone who manages to postpone their service, are not allowed to travel to go abroad.

RFA News

Over 1,000 civilians flee Sittwe amid tension between Myanmar junta and ethnic army

They fear becoming targets of bombings, sniper fire or airstrikes.

More than 1,000 civilians have fled Rakhine state’s capital Sittwe and nearby areas in western Myanmar, fearing heavy artillery attacks as tensions rise between junta forces and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group that has advanced on junta positions, residents said Friday. 

Ongoing exchanges of fire between junta soldiers and the Arakan Army, or AA, in nearby villages, have prompted residents to seek safe havens out of concern that they might be hit by bombs, sniper fire, drone strikes or air strikes, should the conflict escalate. 

Of the 17 townships in Rakhine state, 14 are under the control of the AA, leaving only three — Sittwe, the military council’s regional headquarters, Kyaukphyu and Munaung — still in the hands of the military junta.

A Myanmar junta armored vehicle burns after Arakan Army forces attacked a column that left Sittwe in Rakhine state on Feb. 28, 2024.
A Myanmar junta armored vehicle burns after Arakan Army forces attacked a column that left Sittwe in western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, Feb. 28, 2024. (Arakan Army Info Desk) 

Observers believe that the AA soon could launch an offensive against Sittwe.

And because of this, civilians say they fear getting trapped in the crossfire of heavy artillery used by junta battalions based in Sittwe if the AA strikes.

Sittwe is crucial for the junta — which seized control of Myanmar in a 2021 coup d’état — not only as a source of much-needed revenue and foreign currency, but also for its role in Myanmar’s oil and gas trade via the Indian Ocean.

Besides Sittwe, people in Rathedaung, Pauktaw and Ponnagyun —townships close to Sittwe — are also leaving their homes out of fear of direct attacks, said a Rathedaung resident who spoke on condition of anonymity for safety reasons.

Sittwe township, Rakhine State, Myanmar, is seen May 15, 2023.
An aerial view of Sittwe township in western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, May 15, 2023. (AP) 

“Some already fled from Sittwe township, but now they find themselves forced to flee again, adding to their hardships,” the person said. “Many are struggling due to a lack of warm clothing for winter and severe shortages of basic necessities after being displaced.”

Junta fortifies positions

The junta’s blockade of transportation routes in Rakhine state, which has made travel for displaced civilians difficult, has compounded the situation, they said.

Sittwe residents told RFA that the AA has surrounded the city with a large number of troops while the military junta has fortified its positions, increasing its military presence with battalions outside the city, in areas of Sittwe, and at Sittwe University, in preparation for a defensive stand.

Additionally, thousands of Rohingya — a stateless ethnic group that predominantly follows Islam and resides in Rakhine state — have been given military training by the junta, sources said.

“The army is shooting; the navy is also shooting,” said a Sittwe resident. “People are afraid. They don’t know when the fighting will start.”

AA’s heavy artillery

The AA has already fired heavy artillery and used snipers. Local news reports on Jan. 27 indicated that daily exchanges of fire were occurring between the ethnic army and junta forces, including the use of attack drones.

War-displaced persons fleeing Sittwe city, Rakhine State, Myanmar, Jan. 29, 2025.
Civilians displaced by armed conflict flee Sittwe, capital of western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, Jan. 29, 2025. (Wai Hun Aung) 

Attempts by RFA to contact both AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha and junta spokesperson and Rakhine state attorney general Hla Thein for comment on the issue went unanswered by the time of publishing. 

Human rights advocate Myat Tun said he believes the AA will resort to military action in Sittwe if political negotiations fail.

“The situation in Sittwe is escalating,” he said. “The AA is preparing to take military action if political solutions are not reached.”

RFA News