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Airstrikes kill 28 military family members at detention camp; Arakan Army seizes village in Ayeyarwady Region

January 22, 2025/in News

Airstrikes kill 28 military family members at detention camp The Arakan Army (AA) claimed that a total of 28 people, including children, were killed and 25 others were injured by airstrikes carried out by the Burma Air Force on an undisclosed location near Ram Creek in Mrauk-U Township of Arakan State on Saturday. The AA […]

Myanmar military regime enters year 5 in terminal decline

January 20, 2025/in News

The junta still holds a third of Myanmar, and two-thirds of the population, but misrule has left the regime broke. Myanmar’s military approaches the fourth anniversary of the coup d’etat that put them in power in terminal decline. The economy continues to atrophy, with even more pronounced energy shortages, less foreign exchange, and an even larger […]

Airstrikes kill 28 military family members at detention camp; Arakan Army seizes village in Ayeyarwady Region

January 22, 2025/in News

Myanmar military regime enters year 5 in terminal decline

January 20, 2025/in News

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Airstrikes kill 28 military family members at detention camp; Arakan Army seizes village in Ayeyarwady Region

January 22, 2025/in News

Airstrikes kill 28 military family members at detention camp

The Arakan Army (AA) claimed that a total of 28 people, including children, were killed and 25 others were injured by airstrikes carried out by the Burma Air Force on an undisclosed location near Ram Creek in Mrauk-U Township of Arakan State on Saturday. The AA seized control of Mrauk-U, located 88 miles (142 km) northeast of the Arakan State capital Sittwe, last February.

The death toll included children aged two, eight, 11 and 12, as well as those over age 60. They were members of military families scheduled to be released, who had been detained by the AA in Mrauk-U since fighting ended, according to the AA. The military has intensified its aerial bombardments on areas under AA control in recent months as it has seized 14 out of Arakan’s 17 townships.

So far this month, airstrikes have killed over 40 civilians in Ramree Township and at least nine in Kyauktaw Township. The Blood Money Campaign, a coalition of anti-coup activists, is calling for a global aviation fuel ban on Burma. The U.N. urged both the regime in Naypyidaw, which seized power after the 2021 military coup, and the AA to adhere to their obligations under international humanitarian law.

Arakan Army seizes village in Ayeyarwady Region

The Burma Air Force also carried out airstrikes on Bawmi village of Shwethaungyan town, located 43 miles (69 km) northwest of the Ayeyarwady Region capital Pathein, after it was seized by the AA on Saturday. This is the second village in northern Ayeyarwady to come under AA control since Jan. 10.

“Homes were destroyed and no one who was left behind in the village would have survived,” a Shwethaungyan resident told DVB on the condition of anonymity. Military personnel withdrew from Bawmi village on Jan. 18 after fighting with the AA ended. Residents said that over 200 homes were destroyed by airstrikes on Friday.

A source close to the military told DVB that 80 soldiers were injured and 100 are still missing in Bawmi. The AA took control of Magyizin village of Shwethaungyan town, which is located 20 miles (32 km) south of Gwa Township in southern Arakan, after it seized full control of Gwa on Dec. 29. The Burma Navy has stationed its warships off the coast of Ayeyarwady.

Chin National Front members allegedly arrested in India

India’s Mizoram State authorities announced that they arrested five members believed to belong to the Chin National Front (CNF), including a senior leader, with six AK-47 rifles, 10,050 rounds of ammunition, and 13 magazines during a raid near Saithah village in Mizoram’s Mamit district, the Hindustan Times newspaper reported on Thursday.

“One of [the five arrested] is a member of CNF but not the [Chin National Army]. The weapons and ammunition are also not for the CNF,” Salai Htet Ni, the CNA spokesperson, told Chin World on Jan. 17 in response to the arrests. Indian police accused the CNF members of smuggling the weapons from neighbouring Bangladesh into India.

The authorities also accused a Bangladeshi armed group called the United People’s Democratic Front (UPDF-P) of being involved in the weapons smuggling. Mizoram State shares a 316 mile (510 km) long border with Chinland. The CNF is a founding member of the Chinland Council, one of the two factions of the Chin resistance formed after the 2021 coup.

News by Region

Makeshift homes located next to the railway tracks in North Okkalapa Township of Yangon. (Credit: DVB)

YANGON—North Okkalapa Township residents told DVB that more than 16 households, near Paywatseikkon train station in Tadagyi ward, have been ordered to leave their homes by Feb. 1. The 16 households are planning to file an appeal at the township court. Residents claimed that they received “smart” identification cards from the National League for Democracy (NLD) government which allows them to remain in their homes.

“More than 60 people are staying in the area,” said a Tadagyi ward resident. A Myanma Railways employee told DVB that the residents are being evicted to make way for a new Yangon Circular Railway project planned by the regime’s Ministry of Rail Transportation. North Okkalapa has four train stations and all households near them may soon be facing eviction.

MAGWAY—A resistance group calling itself the Brave Warriors for Myanmar claimed that nine military personnel, including two officers, were killed during its attack on the regime’s No. 21 Defense Equipment Factory in Seikphyu Township on Saturday. Seikphyu is located 73 miles (117 km) south of the regional capital Magway.

“The number of casualties, deaths and damages could be increasing. We are quite satisfied with this mission,” the group’s spokesperson told DVB. He added that the military carried out an artillery attack in response. The Defense Equipment Factory, also known as KaPaSa, produces various munitions allegedly used in airstrikes.

MANDALAY—The People’s Defense Force (PDF) claimed that four civilians were killed and two homes were destroyed in Nyaungkon village of Taungtha Township, by two Burma Air Force members from Meiktila Air Base using paramotors, on Saturday. Taungtha is located 82 miles (131 km) southwest of Mandalay.

“Those things used to come at night time. It happens frequently during this month, causing civilian casualties,” the PDF spokesperson told DVB. He added that at least six rounds of attacks were conducted by the military on Taungtha from Dec. 25 to Jan. 18. Paramotors are a motorized steerable parachute, which can carry at least one pilot, that can fly at speeds from 30-90 miles per hour.

DVB News

Myanmar military regime enters year 5 in terminal decline

January 20, 2025/in News

The junta still holds a third of Myanmar, and two-thirds of the population, but misrule has left the regime broke.

Myanmar’s military approaches the fourth anniversary of the coup d’etat that put them in power in terminal decline.

The economy continues to atrophy, with even more pronounced energy shortages, less foreign exchange, and an even larger share of the budget allocated to the military.

The battlefield losses are staggering, as the opposition has withstood Chinese pressure to stop their offensives, and continues to hand the over-stretched military defeat after defeat. Opposition forces now control two of the 14 military regional commands.

According to the National Unity Government (NUG) Ministry of Defense, the opposition is in full control of 95 of 330 townships, while the State Administrative Council (SAC), as the junta calls itself, had full control over 107 townships.

By the junta’s own admission, they are only able to conduct a census and safely organize elections in 161 of Myanmar’s 330 townships.

Losses on all battlefronts

Having taken 15 of 17 townships in Rakhine state, the Arakan Army is now in almost total control of the key western state. They’ve surrounded the Rakhine capital of Sittwe and come up to the border of Kyaukphyu where China’s special economic zone and port are located.

Although the capture of Buthidaung and Ann were neither quick nor easy, the AA was able to sustain sieges of over a month at each, and in the case of the former, tunneled beneath the last military outpost in a stunning display of grit.

Having captured the southern city of Gwa, the Arakan Army has now crossed into Ayeyarwaddy, taking the fight into the Bamar ethnic majority heartland.

Smoke rises from fires in Kyauk Ni Maw village in Rakhine state, Myanmar, after a Myanmar Air Force bombing raid on Jan. 8, 2025. (Arakan Princess Media)

In the north, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has shrugged off extensive Chinese pressure, and taken the strategic junction town of Mansi, which will make the overland resupply of the besieged city of Bhamo from Mandalay very hard for the junta.

Fighting is ongoing in Bhamo, Kachin’s second largest city. The KIA is now in control of well over half of Kachin, including most of the resource rich regions.

Although they are known for fractiousness, Chin opposition forces are now in almost full control of that state that borders India and Bangladesh, holding five of nine townships, roughly 85% of the territory.

In Shan state, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) temporarily succumbed to Chinese pressure to stop their offensive in November, but they’ve neither surrendered Lashio nor ceded territory, despite airstrikes.

Citing a new military offensive in Naungcho township, the TNLA, which controls nine townships, announced an end to the ceasefire on Jan. 9.

A member of the anti-junta Karenni Nationalities Defence Force holds landmines planted by the Myanmar military and removed during demining operations near Pekon township, July 11, 2023. (AFP)

In eastern Myanmar, Karenni resistance have continued to battle, despite concerted military regime efforts and airstrikes, and their acknowledged ammunition shortages. The Karenni National Defense Force and allied People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) militias claim to control 80% of Kayah state.

Further south, the Karen National Liberation Army and allied people’s defense forces (PDFs) are slowly taking pro-junta border guard posts along the frontier with Thailand.

In Tanintharyi, local PDFs have increased their coordination and are pushing west from the Thai border towards the Andaman Sea coast, diminishing the scope of the military-controlled patchwork of terrain in Myanmar’s southernmost state.

Some of the most intense fighting of late has been in the Bamar heartland, including Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay.

The military has stepped up their bombings, artillery strikes, and arson, intentionally targeting civilians for their support of the opposition forces. A number of PDFs have expanded their operations into the dry zone.

Mounting troubles

The Myanmar military regime faces severe headwinds as the fourth anniversary of the Feb. 1, 2021 coup approaches.

Prisoners of war from multiple fronts have recounted that the military’s ability to resupply and reinforce troops in the field has all but broken down.

They have a limited number of heavy lift helicopters, including three new Mi-17s that entered service in December. But even those are vulnerable: Some six Mi-17s and two other helicopters have been lost since the coup.

In some cases, the military has tried to parachute in supplies, but those often fall into the hands of the opposition forces.

Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing arrives to deliver a speech to mark the country's Armed Forces Day, in Naypyidaw on March 27, 2024. — Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing arrives to deliver a speech to mark the country’s Armed Forces Day, in Naypyidaw on March 27, 2024. (AFP)

Nothing demoralizes troops more than the feeling that the headquarters has abandoned them.

The military has always treated Myanmar as a country under occupation, with thousands of remote outposts scattered throughout the country. The NUG claims that opposition forces have captured 741 of these through 2024, and they continue to fall.

The military is increasingly short of manpower. Over a thousand POWs have been taken in recent months, more have surrendered and others have deserted.

The military has now taken in nine tranches of conscripts, amounting to roughly 45,000 troops, and is increasingly dragooning men. But they are deployed almost immediately and are untrained and poorly motivated, in sharp contrast with ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) and PDFs.

That loss of manpower includes senior officers. The NUG claims that in 2024, 53 senior officers, ranked colonel to major general, were killed, captured or injured.

The military is so broke that they recently announced that they would no longer pay death benefits to conscripts. At the same time, the military is often labeling their dead as “MIA”, rather than “KIA”, to avoid paying benefits.

Sittwe township, Rakhine State, Myanmar, is seen May 15, 2023. (Military True News Information Team via AP)

While the junta fumbles, the degree of tactical battlefield coordination between the legacy ethnic armies and the new PDFs is unprecedented.

Every major offensive outside of Rakhine, entails cooperation between them, and even there, the AA was assisted by Chin PDFs who blocked the military’s resupply from Magway.

The increased PDF operations have been made possible by increased assistance from EROs. The AA and Chin PDFs are pushing in from the west and assisting local PDFs in the Bamar heartland.

The AA’s foray into Ayeyarwaddy was done in concert with local PDFs. The United Wa State Army appears to be defying China by arming and equipping the Mandalay PDF and others that are operating in Mandalay, Magway, and Sagaing.

In its favor, the military has finally caught up to the opposition and effectively employed unmanned aerial systems down to the tactical level.

These include drones that can drop munitions, kamikaze drones, and those for intelligence gathering or for more accurate targeting of artillery.

This has proven costly for the opposition and impeded some of their offensives. Nonetheless, their deployment of drones has been too little too late, and will not fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics.

The military continues to use air power. Indeed, they put their fifth and sixth SU-30 imported from Russia and three more FTC-2000Gs imported from China into service in December.

It’s the economy

But air power is primarily used as a punitive weapon against unarmed civilian targets, not in support of ground forces.

For example, the Jan. 9 bombing in Rakhine’s Yanbye township that killed 52, wounded over 40 and destroyed 500 homes, had no military utility.

Finally, the state of the economy is even more precarious given the loss of almost all border crossings.

Although the SAC technically still controls Muse and Myawaddy, which links them to China and Thailand, respectively, opposition forces control much of the surrounding territory.

While Karen forces have not made a bid to take Myawaddy, the main border crossing, they are pinching in along Asia Highway 1 to Yangon.

On Jan. 11, some 500 reinforcements in 30 armored personnel carriers were deployed from Hpa-An to Kawkareik in Kayan state near the Thai border to keep the last main overland trade artery open.

To sum it up, the junta is entering the fifth year of military rule with its power rapidly slipping away.

Although they still control one-third of the country – land that holds two-thirds of the population – their mismanagement of the economy has left the military regime broke.

Spread too thin across too many fronts simultaneously, it’s hard to see the SAC doing anything to arrest their terminal decline in 2025.

RFA News

Spring Revolution

Civil Society Position Paper on ASEAN’s Goal of a Myanmar-Owned and -Led SolutionDecember 18, 2024 - 12:11 pm
Recommendations to ASEAN and Its Member States (1) Move beyond the 5PC to achieve a Myanmar people-led and people-centered solution to the crisis in Myanmar. ASEAN’s “Myanmar-owned and -led” approach must be backed by genuine political will that aligns with and supports the collective aspirations of the people of Myanmar. (2) Cease all pressure on […]
The Airstrikes after the journey to the China of the Junta Military LeaderDecember 10, 2024 - 1:28 pm
Operation 1027 was a coordinated military attack against the junta on October 27th, 2023. It was carried out by the Northern Brotherhood, which includes the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. Several months later, the Three Brotherhood Alliance held three meetings to negotiate with China on January 11 […]
Human Rights Situation weekly update (September 15 to 21, 2024)September 27, 2024 - 8:26 am
Human Rights Violations took place in States and Regions from Sep 15 to 21, 2024 Military Junta Troop launched airstrikes and dropped bombs in Sagaing Region, Mandalay Region, Shan State, Chin State, Rakhine State, and Kachin State from September 15th to 21st. The Military Junta committed arresting, occupying the properties, threatening by using power, and […]

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ND Burma

ND-Burma formed in 2004 in order to provide a way for Burma human rights organizations to collaborate on the human rights documentation process. The 13 ND-Burma member organizations seek to collectively use the truth of what communities in Burma have endured to advocate for justice for victims. ND-Burma trains local organizations in human rights documentation; coordinates members’ input into a common database using Martus, a secure open-source software; and engages in joint-advocacy campaigns.

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