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Detailed Analysis on War Crimes of Military Council at A Nang Pa

November 22, 2022/in Briefing Papers, ND-Burma's Reports

Myanmar junta looks to placate ASEAN with prisoner releases

November 17, 2022/in News

The military’s amnesty is a calculated move to win bloc’s backing for elections next year. The Myanmar junta’s announcement that it is releasing several high-profile prisoners including a former UK ambassador and an Australian economist, is an attempt to stave off pressure from ASEAN as the military looks to win legitimacy for national elections slated […]

Detailed Analysis on War Crimes of Military Council at A Nang Pa

November 22, 2022/in Briefing Papers, ND-Burma's Reports

Myanmar junta looks to placate ASEAN with prisoner releases

November 17, 2022/in News

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Detailed Analysis on War Crimes of Military Council at A Nang Pa

November 22, 2022/in Briefing Papers, ND-Burma's Reports

On October 23, 2022 at Burmese standard time on 8:40 pm, around 80 people were killed and more than 50 were injured, including many civilians, during the air strike by bombing of fighter jets from military while people were celebrating 62^nd anniversary of forming the Kachin Independence Organization at A Nang Pa in KIA 9^th brigade area which was more than 2 miles from Kansee village in Hpakant town. Among dead and injured were famous Kachin singers, invited business owners, civilians and officers and ordinary soldiers from KIA 9^th brigade including brigade commander, mentioned in the local news. For the worse, the terrorist military blocked the injured people to be sent for treatment to Hpakant town, obviously ignoring human rights and blocking humanitarian assistance.

Moreover, Hpakant residents told Federal Journal, that military even threatened those who escaped from life threatening situation and came to Hpakant hospital and clinic, that they would be charged by illegal association act 17/1. “The act of military council targeting not only the ethnic Kachin people but also the civilian population, is systematically committing war crimes, the crimes against humanity and especially the case of mass murder, and it is not forgivable according to international law and also from the human rights point of view.” pointed out Moon Nay Li, the spokesperson from Kachin Women Association- Thailand, a member organization of Women’s League of Burma, mentioned in the Federal Journal.

On the attack at A Nang Pa area, Vice Chairman of Kachin Independence Council, Lt. General Gunmaw mentioned on his social media page, ““A Nang Pa is not a KIA camp. It’s just a small camp of shop-line where travelers take a break. The KIO Central Committee even did not consider those who had helped and supported successive Burmese governments as enemies. However, now the military council treated the people who came to A Nang Pa as enemies. Though young people are told at every opportunity not to make irreparable mistakes in life, it is the adults who make these mistakes. I am sending prayers for all those who lost their lives in A Nang Pa to get to heaven. I also send prayers to the injured. My condolences to all the family. The sorrow and tears of all will become priceless investments.” Similarly, in the last point of 7 points statement of KIO said, “such a tragic event will be accelerated into a revolutionary force that will push against the dictatorial military council”.

A friend of Ko King who played keyboard and was killed on the night of the attack said, “It’s really sad that a very close childhood innocent friend died. He was a very friendly person, an active participant in youth camp courses in his youth, and a happy person. Now, he has lost his life because of this devilish terrorist army,” revealed his feeling.

A Myitkyina resident Ko (Sumdu), whose name was changed, also said, “This terrorist army has no humane mind. They mark as enemy to whoever they see and kill. They can’t differentiate enemy they need to fight or ordinary people. They are shooting to kill everyone they see. For Myanmar to get peace, there should not be such kind of army,” revealed his point of view.

World Kachin Congress (WKC) also issued a statement condemning this brutal attack by terrorist military council. Similarly, ethnic armed northern brotherhood organizations; Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta-ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have expressed sorrow and condemnation. And, National Unity Government (NUG) and Committee Representing People’s Hluttaw (CRPH) issued statement urging international community for immediate action. The embassies of United State and European Countries also issued joint statement expressing sorrow and condemnation on A Nang Pa incident. Neighboring countries China and India keep silent.

After the attack at A Nang Pa, at the meeting the Third Committee, which is part of the General Assembly held at the United Nations headquarters in New York, U Kyaw Moe Tun, the current Myanmar Ambassador to UN, and Mr. Thomas Andrews, the UN Special Envoy for Human Rights in Myanmar, presented the incident of the Hpakant music festival, which was a massacre by the military council’s air strike. However, the international response seems to be even slower than the speed of a turtle. An international treaty, the Rome Statute of 1998 stipulates that intentional targeting of civilians, purposeful attack knowing that civilians will die or injured; attacking, bombing or shelling towns, villages, house and building without resistance is a war crime. Even though with this stipulation, the international response and action on Burma is obviously nothing.

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Myanmar junta looks to placate ASEAN with prisoner releases

November 17, 2022/in News

The military’s amnesty is a calculated move to win bloc’s backing for elections next year.

The Myanmar junta’s announcement that it is releasing several high-profile prisoners including a former UK ambassador and an Australian economist, is an attempt to stave off pressure from ASEAN as the military looks to win legitimacy for national elections slated for next year.

On Thursday, the junta, formally called the State Administrative Council, said it was releasing Australian Sean Turnell, Briton Vicky Bowman, Japanese journalist Toru Kubota, U.S.-Burmese national Kyaw Htay Oo and several senior opposition figures. It was part of a prisoner amnesty of 5,774 prisoners, including 712 political prisoners, to mark a national holiday.

Turnell, an academic, was a close economic advisor to deposed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is now in prison herself – convicted and sentenced on multiple charges for a total of 26 years. Turnell was arrested days after the 1 Feb. 2021 coup, and sentenced to three years. Former ambassador Bowman, who ran an NGO which advocated corporate responsibility, was arrested with her husband Htein Lin, in September 2022. They were each sentenced to one year each on immigration charges. Lin was also released. Toru Kubota was arrested in July 2022 and sentenced to seven years.

The trumped-up charges against Bowman, Turnell, and Kubota indicate that they were effectively used as hostages to prevent their respective governments from endorsing tougher economic sanctions against the junta.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who has assumed the rotating presidency of ASEAN, has said “Indonesia is deeply disappointed the situation in Myanmar is worsening,” and worried that the organization’s dithering was “defining” the Southeast Asian bloc. Credit: AFP/Indonesia's Presidential Palace file photo — Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who has assumed the rotating presidency of ASEAN, has said “Indonesia is deeply disappointed the situation in Myanmar is worsening,” and worried that the organization’s dithering was “defining” the Southeast Asian bloc. Credit: AFP/Indonesia’s Presidential Palace file photo

Why Now?

The releases came just days after Indonesian President Joko Widodo assumed the rotating presidency of ASEAN. His predecessor as ASEAN chair, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, had largely advocated an engagement policy with the junta, though he was pressured by ASEAN members to disinvite their political leadership to the summits.

In reality, Cambodia’s “leadership” was a gift to the junta. But a sympathetic chair is no longer a given.

Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, announced his dissatisfaction with the grouping’s failure to get the junta to abide by the terms of the Five Point Consensus, reached between the junta and ASEAN in April 2021. It was intended to foster a political settlement and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid.

A Nov. 13 statement from ASEAN after its leaders met for a summit in Cambodia, called for “concrete, practical and measurable indicators” of progress in implementing the consensus, and the junta has reason to believe that Indonesia will be more forceful in its approach. Jokowi stated that “Indonesia is deeply disappointed the situation in Myanmar is worsening,” and worried that the organization’s dithering was “defining” the Southeast Asian bloc.

While one might be skeptical that Indonesia may take a substantially harder line on the junta, would the generals in Naypyidaw be willing to take the risk? Foreign policy has never been a high priority for the Indonesian president, but having successfully hosted what could have been a very contentious G-20 summit and now assuming the presidency of ASEAN, Jokowi may be looking towards his legacy. His time in office will end in 2024.

But it was more than the ASEAN meeting that accounts for the timing.

On Nov. 14, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah announced that said that Malaysia would not support the junta’s planned elections in 2023, as it would be “biased” and rejected by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy, which won overwhelmingly in the November 2020 polls, the shadow National Unity Government or other stakeholders.

“The pro-democracy group that won the previous election won big but before they could convene Parliament, the junta took over power,” Saifuddin said. “Therefore, it is completely illogical for Malaysia and ASEAN to support the election.”

The junta has every reason to fear that Indonesia may follow suit, paving the way for other ASEAN states, such as the Philippines and Singapore, to share that position.

The proposed election in Myanmar in 2023 will be shambolic, for a host of reasons. The junta has established a proportional representationsystem it believes that will be in its favor, arrested hundreds of NLD members of parliament and activists, gerrymandered districts, moved to ban parties, and controlled the media. It is also moving to establish a national identity card system that would be required for voting, but likely unavailable to much of the electorate. The junta also controls the Union Election Commission and the judiciary.

Various ethnic resistance organizations have already stated that no electoral activities will be allowed in their territory. The shadow government that emerged after the coup, the NUG, will probably lead a nationwide boycott of the elections, further diminishing the credibility of the vote.

Yet, while the junta is confident that they can rig a vote in their favor, they are much less confident that the international community will accept it. Coup leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing really believes that elections would allow him, Thai style, to cling to power and legitimize his regime.

While he can count on China, Russia and India, along with Japan and South Korea, to endorse any elections, giving the regime a fig leaf of legitimacy and allowing business as usual to resume, the key to international acceptance will be the stance of ASEAN.

The U.S. and the West have always said that ASEAN has to be the lead to any political resolution to the crisis in Myanmar. So it’s essential for the junta to try to preempt the bloc from rejecting the election’s results, before they’ve even happened.

A member of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) takes part in training for female special forces members in Myanmar's eastern Kayah state this year. Despite losses on the battlefield to ethnic resistance organizations and People’s Defense Forces, the junta feels it can win by outlasting its opponents’ will to fight. Credit: AFP/Karenni Nationalities Defense Force file photo — A member of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) takes part in training for female special forces members in Myanmar’s eastern Kayah state this year. Despite losses on the battlefield to ethnic resistance organizations and People’s Defense Forces, the junta feels it can win by outlasting its opponents’ will to fight. Credit: AFP/Karenni Nationalities Defense Force file photo

The junta’s theory of victory

Despite considerable battlefield losses against Ethnic Resistance Organizations and People’s Defense Forces that have taken up arms since the coup, and a multi-front civil war, the junta has a theory of victory. The NUG’s center of gravity is their alliances and working relationships with the various ethnic armed organizations who also provide the NUG’s network of militias with arms and training. So they continue to dangle autonomy agreements and revenue sharing with any ethnic resistance organization that will show up in Naypyidaw.

The SAC also knows that time is on their side. Despite their gross economic mismanagement, they still have more resources than the NUG, they have access to weapons and arms, and can borrow money from abroad.

The junta simply has to hang on, and not lose any more territory before the elections slated for next August. Indeed, they are poised to begin their dry season offensive, trying to retake as much territory as possible and use their air power to bomb the ethnic resistance forces in the hopes that they quit the NUG and enter into peace talks.

And that’s why the release of Turnell, Bowman and others is so important. It will be interpreted by many in ASEAN and the international community as a goodwill gesture by the junta that will allow states that were starting to call for greater isolation of the junta to accept continued engagement.

For the junta, it all comes down to next year’s elections. It worked for the Thai junta that seized power in 2014, and was able within a few years to go from pariah to a normalized state, all while politically emasculating the opposition.

For Min Aung Hlaing, Bowman, Turnell, Kubota, and others are tokens to be exchanged for international endorsement. And they have many more to play, including the Lady herself — as Aung San Suu Kyi is known in Myanmar — as they maneuver to hold onto power. This is no humanitarian gesture, but a cynical and calculated ploy for international legitimacy.

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ND-Burma formed in 2004 in order to provide a way for Burma human rights organizations to collaborate on the human rights documentation process. The 13 ND-Burma member organizations seek to collectively use the truth of what communities in Burma have endured to advocate for justice for victims. ND-Burma trains local organizations in human rights documentation; coordinates members’ input into a common database using Martus, a secure open-source software; and engages in joint-advocacy campaigns.

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